IDALIA UPDATE: Osceola and Orange counties added to Tropical Storm Watch

At 5:30 a.m. Monday, the National Weather Service issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties, adding them to the advisory that Polk County was included in on Sunday.

A Watch means that those conditions -- winds of 40-75 mph -- are possible in the next 36 to 48 hours. (If it is upgraded to a Warning, then those conditions are *expected* in 24-36 hours.)

While the center of the storm is still forecast to make a Florida landfall in the Cedar Key area of the state's Big Bend, it intensified late Sunday and into Monday morning. It now has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph as of the 5 a.m. advisory, is expected to become a hurricane later today, and is now forecast to be a major Category 3 storm when it makes landfall early in the day Wednesday with 115 mph maximum winds around the center.

Other key pieces of the 5 a.m. advisory:

The Orlando area has a 38 percent chance of tropical storm-force winds (40 mph) through Thursday, and an 8 percent chance of winds up to 58 mph. Our area could see 2-4 inches of rain courtesy of the storm.

And the storm discussion gave reason for all of us to continue to intently watch this storm, as it will be paralleling the west coast and any deviation to the right, or east, will increase our impacts.

Over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment is forecast to become conducive for significant strengthening ... Idalia will be moving over waters near 31C ... The bottom line is that rapid intensification is becoming increasingly likely before landfall, and the NHC forecast now explicitly indicates it between 24-48 h in the forecast. This is consistent with almost all of the regional hurricane models. The new prediction shows a 100-kt hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but Idalia should keep strengthening up to landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and monitor future updates to the forecast for this increasingly dangerous situation."

We will give an update with a synopsis of the National Hurricane Center's 11 a.m. advisory.